The Mess in Afghanistan and the Dangers Ahead

Written by: Samuel Odusami

In the last week, the world has witnessed a seismic shift in the scheme of things in Afghanistan. While I usually refrain from giving my perspective on every current affairs headline, I am compelled to share my views on Afghanistan, because it is a crucial and historic set of events that are pivotal to the future of countries with relevant or related circumstances such as Nigeria, Libya and Kenya.

While the United States of America appropriately took a strategic move to defend itself against Al Qaeda by taking the war to them in Afghanistan, it is my opinion that the foundation for the present chaos in Afghanistan was laid directly and or indirectly by the U.S. and we need to appreciate this fact before looking at the consequences and impact the crisis portends for the people of Afghanistan and the world in general.

How it all started
To better understand and appreciate the current crisis in Afghanistan, one must understand that it was not in the intention of the US to invade and seize control of Afghanistan from the Taliban.

Afghanistan of 2000 was a country under the spell of a devious and barbaric terror group, running a rogue state, haboured Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda terror network. They went ahead to decline from giving him up after he committed one of the most deadly terror attacks in human history

On September 11, 2001, two ill-fated planes hijacked by bin Laden’s gangs of terrorists plunged into the twin towers called the World Trade Centre killing over 3,000 people while another one planned to hit the Pentagon missed. As a 16-year-old boy, I watched the horror on TV screens trying to make sense of the disaster but I could not fathom the consequences until I gained admission into Olabisi Onabanjo Unversity and I minored into international relations in my first two years.

A Bad Deal
Before President Donald J. Trump rode to power in 2016, he made it clear to whoever was ready to listen that he was not a politician and he was not going to Washington to play politics but to get things done and re-write the purported wrongs of the past government.

However, it became more apparent as he started taking charge that his unorthodox approach could upend the global position of the U.S. as the most powerful country in the world and a bastion of the Western axis.

When Trump shocked the world that he was planning to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan by September 2021, it was not clear to its allies and several state actors how the status quo in Kabul would be impacted.

However, recently unraveled facts showed that Trump’s deal with the Taliban is not careless but designed to get the US out of the country at all cost no matter ‘whose ox is gored’. The Taliban only needed to swear by the graves of their mothers and fathers not to allow Afghanistan to be used as a base to attack the US or its allies or habour any militant or terror group (particularly Al Qaeda).

If this is not shocking enough, the Trump deal conceded every other benefit to the Taliban. Despite stating the obvious fact that the UN does not recognize the legitimacy of the Taliban, the deal included the creation of a ‘new country’ to be called the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to be solely controlled by the Taliban and that the country will be allowed to rule without interference. There was no part of the agreement that explicitly dictated what becomes of the now-defunct Afghan government in Kabul. There were no conditions tied to the benefits as regards the treatment of women and civil liberties.

While Trump could whisper in the dark as to what disaster Biden created with his ‘hurried’ withdrawal, his deal not only sold off Afghanistan and its people to the dreaded and barbaric Taliban, wasted over $2 trillion in war and nation-building efforts, but more importantly rubbished the legacy of the US as a global leader and thousands of troops (Americans, Afghans and allies’) who paid the ultimate price and its NATO allies who stood by the country to wage war against its enemy.

Biden’s Mess
If there was anything President Biden was known for that was seen as his strength, it was his political and diplomatic experience and implicit maturity to better manage (albeit tackle) thorny issues such as Afghanistan and even the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

However, while Biden has proved to be effective in the handling of China in line with its strategic interests, Biden’s handling of Afghanistan and the mess that developed out of his decision to pull out troops earlier than planned by Trump but went about it without proper coordination with NATO allies and even the Ashraf Ghani’s government, the same leadership the U.S. installed, funded and mentored for over 20 years.

While the world was shocked with apocalyptic scenes of Afghans clinging and falling off planes in the skies, the real consequences of Biden’s miscalculation and incoherent approach to leaving the country have not yet manifested and the UN, NATO and state actors must be ready to tackle and mitigate one of the most shocking humanitarian catastrophes that lie ahead.

Taliban – Same of the Same
If the deal that sold off Afghanistan to the Taliban is not exasperating enough, the latest political and conciliatory overtures of the group should be a source of concern.

From declaring an amnesty to all government officials to its promises that women’s rights will be respected and that they will be allowed to work is a precursor to the Taliban’s real plans for Afghanistan.

Make no mistake about it, the Taliban is a leopard that has is genetically-designed to remain spotted. Scenes of Taliban militants flogging and shooting at beleaguered Afghans who were trying to escape its impending reign of terror and carnage and the few weeks and months will portend dire consequences for the people of Afghanistan and the region at large.

To believe that the Taliban will continue to help the U.S. in ‘killing’ terrorists as purported by Trump is not only a miscalculation but a dangerous agreement that could backfire. This is because the exit of the U.S. with no military booths on the ground will sooner or later give ISIS and Al Qaeda the motivations to rachet-up their offensive against the Taliban (although this very much unlikely) should they meet major resistance in their bid to use the country as the base to advance their plans against the U.S. If the recent U.N. report that identified tribal and marital links between top echelons of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda leadership is anything to go by; the wishful thinking that the Taliban will curtail and deal with the former and even ISIS is indeed minacious to the security of the U.S. when things finally go haywire,

Implications & Learnings
If Afghanistan is to mean anything to anyone, it should be the failure of leadership on an international scale. State actions and their leaders must take learnings to handle their matters swiftly, dispassionately and locally. Yes, the US is still the most powerful country in the world, yes, it will play pivotal roles in maintaining global peace and security through various organs at its disposal, however, the idea that America must not only meddle in domestic politics and governance of weak countries should be discarded lest we create hundreds of potential Afghanistan.

While I was ambivalent with America’s role in tackling insurgency and terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa states faced with these challenges, I now objectively, think the US should retain a more strategic and hands-off approach to enable countries such as Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa to solve these matters their way so far as the modus operandi it is in accordance with international law.

The Taliban would soon realise that it has no inhibition to turn a new leaf. Taking Afghanistan on a platter and with the absence of the US, the Taliban will have a third party to guide its path towards running a functioning state. While the current Taliban is far more experienced in relating with the outside world, its major albatross is not only its 20 years off power but the absolute power that it now has at its beck and call, possessing the carte blanche to decide the fate of over 40 million people. ‘Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it, if the Taliban continues to play to the gallery that it is a new breed, the international community should pre-empt that the group would be worse than it was back in 2002 before it was dislodged into the mountains.

The promise that the Taliban will not allow its land and territory to be used by Al Qaeda or any group to attack the US and or its allies is also very shabby and the US will be damned not to pre-empt and go on a strategic offensive to deflect the inevitable moves of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS) to soon cozy-up to the upper echelons of the Taliban and it becomes business as usual.

No doubt about it, the US still has some tools in its arsenal to put a leash on the Taliban before it further morphs into a Frankenstein. The recent decision by President Biden to freeze the nearly $9 billion foreign reserves as well as away from the reach of the Taliban is a move in the right direction. Moreover, Biden must not go alone in setting up a huge wall of deterrence for the Taliban to prevent it from becoming the monster that it was. With the support of NATO and other strategic partners, several sanctions should be drafted and imposed immediately on the Taliban to curb its unraveling excesses on one hand and also curtail it from taking refuge in the arms of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates, the three states who recognised its statehood. If the Taliban will get any credence or recognition of any sort, it must earn it and such process will not come without the U.S., NATO allies deploying a combined strategy of isolation, hydra-headed sanctions and military deterrence.

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Another approach should not be discountenanced because of the difficulty in its implementation due to ideological clashes and the tense diplomatic climate amongst parties involved.

Be it as it may, it requires the US, China and Russia to seek areas of interest as regards Afghanistan. While China (albeit risking the conferment of legitimacy for the Taliba) has opened formal conduits of communication and relationship with the Taliban, Russia is adopting a wait-and-see approach. Similar to his approach of selective mutual cooperation, President Biden should as a matter of urgency take the matured stance to create an atmosphere of rapprochement that can engender cooperation with China, and Russia in the handling of Afghanistan, Taliban and the consequences thereof. My recommendation is not in any way oblivious o the fact that all the three superpowers have specific strategic interests in the country. China sees Afghanistan as a canvas to further checkmate one of its most prominent ‘enemy’, India, further propagate its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as ensuring its core-Muslim region of Xinghiang cannot take solace in the Taliban. Russia sees its role in the country as a way of curtailing America’s influence in the region.

Moreover, Afghanistan is instructive to these superpowers, if hubris dictates their policy, it could as well end up becoming the proverbial saying that “Those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside.”

The future of Afghanistan is pivotal to the security of the world and the U.N. through its several organs and agencies must prevent the loss of lives and livelihood in the country. To ensure Afghanistan no longer host the ‘university of terror’ is a global challenge that state actors irrespective of geography must confront decisively and dispassionately.

Samuel Odusami is a post-graduate researcher in international relations at Nottingham Trent University, United Kingdom. Opinions expressed are his personal views only.

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