Why Tesla is about to start losing its 18% market share

(Electrek/Frédéric Lambert) – The latest data shows Tesla (TSLA) still holds an impressive 18% market share of the global electric car market.

That’s about to change, and it’s not going to be a bad thing for Tesla, who is about to get a smaller piece of a much bigger pie.

For years now, Tesla has been leading the electric vehicle market (BEV and PHEV) with large volume production and deliveries of several vehicle programs.

Model 3 and Model Y are leading EV sales in many markets, while Model S and Model X are still beating many other electric vehicles in terms of volume.

Other automakers have only been able to achieve a fraction of Tesla’s sales in the sector as they mostly stuck to low volume compliance electric cars.

The result is that Tesla now holds roughly 18% of the global electric vehicle market year-to-date in 2020 with Volkswagen coming at a distant second with only a third of Tesla’s volume (via EV Sales Blogspot):

Pl. Brands Sept sales Year-to-Date sales Market share
1 Tesla 65,814 316,820 18%
2 Volkswagen 24,035 113,091 6%
3 BYD 18,631 104,176 6%
4 BMW 15,525 101,270 6%
5 Renault 13,300 68,928 4%
6 Mercedes-Benz 17,836 68,855 4%
7 Volvo 11,838 67,561 4%
8 Audi 12,385 67,304 4%
9 Hyundai 11,510 63,679 4%
10 Kia 10,937 59,840 3%
11 SGMW 19,023 58,785 3%
12 SAIC 9,967 51,275 3%
13 Peugeot 6,994 43,498 2%
14 Nissan 6,936 42,181 2%
15 GAC 7,083 39,833 2%
16 Toyota 5,144 31,101 2%
17 Ford 2,944 30,432 2%
18 Mitsubishi 3,417 28,208 2%
19 Porsche 4,203 27,928 2%
20 Nio 4,203 26,498 1%
Others 73,177 371,030 21%
Total 345,519 1,784,293 100%

However, this domination from Tesla is about to change as the electric vehicle market as a whole is about to shift significantly in the next few years.

Electrek’s Take
Currently, Tesla has about 18% of a global EV market that itself has about 3% fo the global passenger vehicle market.

In short, Tesla has a big piece of a small pie.

Things are about to change fast with more than a dozen new all-electric vehicle programs launching over the next 12 months alone, and many more to come in the next few years.

Personally, I predict that the EV market share will more than double to between 7 and 10% of the global auto market in 2021 alone.

I expect Tesla is going to grow its sales by roughly 50% next year, which is going to help, but I think that Volkswagen with the ID.3 and ID.4, Audi with Q4 e-tron, Ford with the Mustang Mach E, Nissan with Ariya, and many more, are going to have an even greater impact than Tesla increasing sales by 50%.

Therefore, Tesla’s market share of the EV market will drop, but it will be a smaller piece of a much bigger market. I think they will still keep the lead, but it will be closer to 12% of the market if EV sales reach between 7 and 10% of the global auto market.

What do you think is going to be the market share of EVs in 2021? Let us know your predictions in the comment section below.