Why the iPhone 12 is expected to be the most successful since the iPhone 6 – Analyst Ming-Chi Guo

(Patently Apple) – Tianfeng International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Guo released a report today (Oct. 19) that his review and estimation of iPhone 12 and 12 Pro pre-orders are as follows:

We estimate that the pre-orders within 24 hours after the opening of pre-orders will reach 1.7-2 million units (vs. 500,000-800,000 iPhone 11 series & 4 million iPhone 6 series).
We believe that the popular iPhone 11 price cut will affect the iPhone 12 pre-order demand, so the current iPhone 12 delivery time in most countries is about 5-10 days, and the pre-order demand is lower than expected.
Because Apple’s core fans initially prefer high-end models, benefiting from the strong demand in China and the upcoming peak season demand in the European and American markets, the iPhone 12 Pro pre-orders are better than expected. The delivery time of iPhone 12 Pro in most countries is 2–4 weeks, and the demand from China accounts for 35–45% of the global demand. Reasons for the strong pre-order demand in China include: (1) the shift in demand for some high-end devices due to the Huawei ban, and (2) the popularization of 5G infrastructure and favorable marketing.

As for the iPhone 12 and 12 Pro pre-orders last week, his new predictions regarding the iPhone 12 series are as follows:

We estimate that the sales volume of the iPhone 12 and 12 Pro in the first weekend after the launch is 7-9 million units (vs. iPhone 11 series 10-12 million units & iPhone 6S series 13 million units & iPhone 6 series 10 million units ). The initial supply of the iPhone 12

Pro was insufficient, limiting sales in the first weekend.

We believe that the pre-orders and first weekend sales of iPhone 12 mini and 12 Pro Max will be lower than iPhone 12 and 12 Pro.

We estimate that iPhone 12 mini, 12, 12 Pro and 12 Pro Max will account for 10-15%, 30-35%, 30-35%, and 15-20% of 4Q20 shipments, respectively. The reason for lowering the proportion of iPhone 12 mini shipments is that it does not support dual SIM cards and is equipped with a small-size display. Therefore, it is expected that the demand in the Chinese market will be low.

A second report out of Taiwan today noted that the new iPhone buying is expected to be the most prosperous in six years and shortages could last until February 2021. Indications are that the pre-order buying momentum has been the best since the iPhone 6 back in 2014, and is expected to be the hottest new smartphone in the past six years.

According to the observations of channel operators in Taiwan, the current status of appointments and pre-orders for telecommunications and various channels is about two to three times that of the same period last year. The first batch of goods arrived before the sale is “not enough”. It accounts for 70% of the arrivals, while other channels and e-commerce companies account for about 30%.


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