Analysts predict further slowdown in inflation for March


In anticipation of the latest inflation data from the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, analysts at Access Bank are predicting a further slowdown.

The Economic Intelligence Group at the bank forecast that the March data will be second consecutive month that the pace of annual inflation slowed after increasing for fifteen straight months.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is scheduled to release the inflation figure for March 2017 on April 15 2017, based on the Data Release Calendar available on the Bureau’s website.

The basis for the forecast was based on an autoregressive analysis of past prices, while it recognizes all the assumptions used by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its computation of monthly composite consumer price index (CCPI).

  • The expected decline in the pace of inflation in March reflects a favourable base effect from the previous year which offsets slightly higher food prices seen in March.
  • According to an independent survey, the highest price increases in the food index were recorded in the Fish, Vegetables, and Bread and Cereals groups.
  • The currency appreciation in the parallel market witnessed in March (13% month-on-month) should also serve to dampen inflationary pressures. Thus Core Inflation Index is expected to extend its downward trend.

A further decline in inflation will further prove that Nigeria’s recession is losing steam.

However, there are core aspect of inflation that have not been taken care of. Food prices are still higher than ever, a major sector that will keep the inflation in double digit for many months to come.

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