Gambian President-elect Adama Barrow rode on the crest of a “change message” and won the recent election, free and fair for the first time in The Gambia, a tiny West African country.
He has made big promises to repair the 22 years of tyranny and misrule inflicted on Gambians by incumbent President Yahya Jammeh’s government.
The key to winning elections is to make big and solemn promises. The promises get bigger especially when the ills of society including war, poverty, starvation, government corruption, impunity and arrogance are rife in a given nation.
From immature democracies of developing nations to so-called mature democracies of developed countries, the depressing climate in politics has gotten worse in recent times. But voters are helpless optimists who are ready to fall for every message of change again and again. And, so far as bad governance and broken promises pervade democracies, the message of hope and change by a supposed new blood will always work magic on the collective psyche of voters.
By January 2017, the post-election reality will hit Barrow and his team. Having inflated the hopes and expectations of exhausted Gambians, who reeled under the jackboot of Jammeh, Barrow’s task would in no small measure be enormous. Like every downtrodden population, Gambians will seek miraculous results from him and the combined 7 political parties that democratically took power from Jammeh.
The new president who happens to be a real estate magnate like his American counterpart, Donald Trump has promised to introduce an independent judiciary, uphold media freedom, curb government corruption and most important improve the life of average Gambians that has been battered over time, among numerous promises.
What is Gambia’s economic outlook and the feasibility of Barrow turning things around even with two terms in office? Gambia’s economic performance has been affected by many internal and external factors. Corruption and protectionism remain key obstacles to economic freedom, internally. According to report, despite some reforms in customs automation tariffs, investment restrictions continue to undermine productivity growth in the private sector.
The Gambia has a labour force of about 700 000 by occupation with agriculture accounting for 75%, industry, commerce, and services 19% and government 6%.The nation’s economic progress depends on transient bilateral and multilateral aids. Due to reckless government economic management, international donors and lenders continue to be concerned about the quality of fiscal management. The IMF provided $10.8 million in emergency financial assistance to The Gambia in April 2015 to shore up the country’s finances. However, relations with international donors have been damaged by the country’s human rights record under Jammeh’s watch.
On a regional economic freedom snapshot, The Gambia ranks 21st in Sub-Saharan Africa and its fiscal balance deteriorated in 2015. As a result, the country’s international reserves came under pressure and the outlook became clouded by Jammeh’s policy somersault resulting in a large programmed deficit of 9.3% of GDP in 2016, according to a survey by African Economic Outlook (AEO).
The small West African country has sparse natural resource deposits and a limited agricultural base and therefore relies heavily on remittances from workers overseas and tourist receipts. Report says remittance inflows to The Gambia amount to about one-fifth of the country’s GDP. Industry accounts for 12% of GDP while manufacturing accounts for 6% which is primarily agriculturally based.
Among many other humongous challenges Barrow would encounter in delivering his promises are official corruption and impunity as government officials reportedly participate in drug trafficking.
The Gambia also has a record of poor judicial system which recognizes both customary law and sharia (Islamic) law. This system, critics say, has diminished the government’s ability to protect property rights, an area of Barrow’s specialty.
Almost 50% of Gambians reside in urban areas making the country to face rapid unplanned urbanisation with its consequent environmental challenges. Urban sprawl offers huge opportunities in development, but that of The Gambia has been identified as a risk in recent times. Its accidental approach to urban development has resulted in wholesale flooding and other environmental hazards, putting much pressure on social services.
In this regard, Barrow would have to articulate and implement to the letter, adequate policy framework that would strengthen existing weak institutions and strategically rearrange the shambolic expansion in urbanisation. If properly harnessed, that area of development will also generate a large share of the economy and employment opportunities.
Other goldmines include the agricultural sector which Barrow stated as priority – less than half of the country’s arable land is cultivated. Small-scale manufacturing activity features the processing of peanuts, fish, and hides. The Gambia’s re-export trade accounts for almost 80% of goods exports and China has been its largest trade partner for both exports and imports for several years.
But politicians are frequently the most mercurial breeds. Their priorities could make a sudden U-turn and peoples’ hopes dashed when least expected.
Barrow may not be an accomplished economist but a strong political will with sincerity of purpose can turn the nation’s fortune around.
Image source: Pulse.ng
